10th August, 2024
Last weekend, I travelled home for a three day camping trip. It was a lovely holiday, catching up with old friends and getting some much-needed fresh air. If I had taken an airbed rather than a roll-mat, it would've been perfect.
My aching back aside, it was something that happened before this trip that is more pertinent to this blog. With a four hour train journey to get through, Football Manager would provide a worthy way to pass the time. I only had my laptop, which would run my Catania save at a snail's pace, so I opted to start a summer save with Vitória S.C. of Portugal, otherwise known as VTSC.
Why VTSC? Well, firstly, look at that club crest. It's magnificent. They also play in a league just outside of Europe's top five, and are a club just outside of the top four within this league. A nice parallel.
They have won a total of two major trophies, which for a club that is 101 years old is underwhelming. The most recent of these came in the 2012/13 season, with a 2-1 victory over Benfica in the Taça de Portugal. Their best top flight finish is third, a position they have failed to match since 2008. To be fair to them, only five teams have ever won the Liga Portugal, and only the giants of Benfica, Porto, and Sporting CP can boast more than one title.
That gives us plenty to aim for. VTSC are by no means a small club, but the resources of Portugal's elite clubs dwarf everyone else in the league. A quick look at salary spend per annum makes this pretty clear:
Between us and Braga, there is a €7M disparity in wage spending. That's only enough for them to be in fourth place, with a €20M gap between them and third placed Sporting. It's very much a league of two halves, with Braga perhaps straddling the line between the best and the rest. We have excellent facilities and a great youth set up which can help bridge the financial gap between us and the top teams.
I've also noticed that the Catania save hasn't quite gripped me like others have in the past. Though we have definitely done well, I wasn't feeling the excitement that I used to. I've been watching a lot of MustermannFM lately (a creator I cannot recommend enough), and I came to the conclusion that perhaps it isn't the club or league I'm in, but the way I'm playing the game itself.
A New Approach
I have written previously how my interest in data in football, and the Football Manager series, has been fleeting at best. MustermannFM is a leading figure in the use of data analysis in the game, and after watching his videos I understood the potential that this way of approaching the game had for providing a radically different experience. My current approach to squad building has, by my own admission, led to teams bloated with wonderkids and unhappy players. Over time this has become predictable, and without sounding arrogant, a bit too easy.
I decided I would go all in.
The Mustermann Iconic skin is a pseudo-attributeless skin, with data analysis at the forefront. I will be using this for the VTSC save, effectively jumping in at the deep end and forcing myself to learn the tenets of data analysis and how it can be used in Football Manager.
With my new approach determined, I decided that I would also overhaul my method of squad-building, and how I run clubs in the future. The focus would be on smaller, curated squads, with every transfer being carefully considered to achieve the best results within the constraints placed upon me. This is important, as if we are to have any chance of unseating Portugal's top clubs we must our resources wisely. I will also be playing with a slower, measure approach, allowing me to really hone in on my decision making process. First, I needed a blueprint, something which I could follow at any club I take over.
I won't be winning any awards for graphic design, but this encapsulates the approach I will be taking from this point forward. As the title says, it's holistic, incorporating every aspect of my job as the team's manager. I have made this a continuous cycle, as each element must work together to ensure the best chance of success.
Strategy - This is best described as the 'behind the scenes' part of managing the club, or our general long-term strategy. Our objectives and how we should go about them are set by the board, so everything we do should be aligned with their expectations. This element also incorporates how we approach transfer strategy and building a squad that will align with our tactics and functions.
Tactics - One of two elements that dictate how we approach playing (and preferably winning) football matches, the bread and butter of our job as the manager. I have split this into two parts, with tactics determining how the team plays as a whole, including the formation and team instructions that every player is expected to follow.
Functions - Rather than focussing on positions, I will split the first XI down into the specific functions I want them to fulfil within the tactic. This will determine their role and position, as well as helping guide our transfer strategy to target players who can perform these functions. Additionally, it allows for more flexibility in terms of positions, meaning that if a player fits a function but not a particular position, they can be shifted around accordingly without affecting the overall balance of the team.
Compounding this will be our data-led approach which will dictate most of what we do, particularly in terms of squad-building. When signing players, I will consider if they fit into the objectives set by the board, their suitability for the tactic, and which function they will perform within the squad. I will follow the advice of our Director of Football, who will be leading our negotiations for purchasing players and agreeing contracts.
With my new strategy laid out, it was time to turn my attention to Vitória S.C.
Taking over at VTSC
My representative in-game will be Guimarães born Afonso Vieira, taking up his first head coach role.
Named for the first king of Portugal and patron of the city of Guimarães, Afonso Vieira will be taking over from the incumbent caretaker manager Álvaro Pacheco, who in real life was sacked in May for holding talks with Brazilian club Cuiabá. Vieira spent most of his short career playing for Guimarães's B team, before a serious ankle injury forced him out of football aged just 24. A career in coaching ensued, with time spent in the lower leagues of Brazil before a five year spell as an analyst with the Portuguese U21 national team. With Álvaro Pacheco leaving for pastures new, club president António Miguel Cardoso has been convinced by Vieira's strategic plan - using data analysis to mitigate the club's comparatively low resources and build a team that can challenge for honours.
Eyebrows were raised at the appointment of such an inexperienced manager, but the club's board were in agreement that a change of direction was needed if they were to break the deadlock and achieve success. As a local lad, Afonso understands the fanbase and has a reason beyond furthering his own career to overhaul VTSC into a club that can challenge for major honours.
Board vision and expectations
A key part of our strategy is to follow the wishes of the board, and so it's vital to keep their vision in mind whilst pursuing our own. Thankfully, they aren't expecting too much of us. Qualifying for the Europa Conference League requires at least a 6th placed finish, and then progression through the League Path starting in the second round of qualifying. A good cup run is not outside the realms of possibility, and a repeat of the club's 2013 success is unlikely but nonetheless on the cards.
I think we can surpass their expectations, and their culture in regards to transfer activity aligns nicely with my own.
I also wanted to take the supporter's wishes into consideration, as they are an important stakeholder in the club and keeping them happy is vital.
As a disclaimer, I took this screenshot after I'd progressed the save somewhat, but as you can see we're keeping them pretty happy! They want us to play entertaining, high-tempo pressing football, and I'm more than happy to oblige. Braga are a good team, but I'll be placing extra emphasis on our preparation for matches against them as one of our fierce rivals. Boavista are firmly a mid-table club, but again attention will be paid to make sure we beat them. There should be no issues here, as long as good results are forthcoming.
Player assessment, tactical approach and functions
So far, so good. But this is the first point where I hit a snag. With the Mustermann skin, I don't have access to exact player attributes, only an indication in the form of a coloured circle. This makes determining what they're good at without data more difficult, as many of their attributes are within the same range.
I don't have access to data within FM as no matches have been played yet. I could simulate the season several times to build a database, but as I was starting on an underpowered laptop this wasn't an option. It's something I'll consider in the future, however.
I had to look for alternatives, and as the 2023/24 season has just finished in real life, statistics are available for the VTSC squad. I'm confident in Sports Interactive's ability to accurately represent players abilities in the game, so I decided to head over to FBref to get a better look at how the squad performed over the course of the season I was about to play. This also has the added bonus of setting a benchmark for us to beat, in an attempt to outperform our real life counterpart Álvaro Pacheco.
Vitória put together a decent campaign, finishing the Liga Portugal in 5th place behind Braga, Porto, Benfica and champions Sporting, earning a chance to qualify for the Europa Conference League in 2024/25.
This was an improvement on their 6th place finish in 2022/23, which nonetheless was enough to get them into the qualifying stages of the Europa conference League. Their qualification campaign was over almost instantly after they were knocked out in the second qualifying round following a penalty shootout against NK Celje of Slovenia.
The Taça da Liga, or Portuguese League Cup, was equally unexciting, with a 1-0 defeat in the second round by second division team Tondela. In the Taca de Portugal, or Portuguese Cup, they were more successful, eventually being knocked out after a 4-1 aggregate defeat by Porto. Alongside our board expectations, that sets us some targets to aim for:
Liga Portugal - 4th place or higher
Europa Conference League - Qualify for the group stage
Taça de Liga - Reach third round
Taça de Portugal - Reach the final
Individual Tactical Analysis
FBref provides a lot of statistics, and handily offers a chart showing player statistical percentiles compared to positional peers in Men's Next 14 Competitions over the last 365 days. For us, this is great, as it covers the entirety of the 2023/24 season.
My actual process for this was more methodical, planning my tactical approach as I analysed each player in detail and formulated an idea of how the team would play in my head. In the interest of legibility, I have split this into my analysis of the players and the functions they will perform within the squad, and then a separate section to discuss our team tactics. I won't go into every player here, but I have picked my provisional first XI based on the player's stats in real life.
The First XI
Jota Silva
Born: August 1, 1999
Nationality: Portuguese
Position: FW
Wage: €182,000 p/a
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Arguably Vitória's most important player, the Portuguese Grealish was in electric form last season, finishing the Liga Portugal campaign as the team's top scorer with 11 goals. He was also the joint highest provider of assists with 5. Of the Vitória players who registered more than 450 minutes, he was top for percentage of squad minutes played with 90.8%, and top for shots on target per 90 with 1.17. His good form has recently earned him a move to the Premier League with Nottingham Forest, for a reported fee of €7M plus add-ons.
To get the best of his ability, he will be the primary player that I build this tactic around. His goal tally puts him in the 80th percentile for Non-penalty goals, with a per 90 overperformance of 0.10. We can see that he is not great at the possession game, nor is he as good as his peers at taking on his man. He was, however, in the 90th percentile for touches in the opposing box, meaning he’s more than happy getting on the ball in a congested area.
What really stands out to me is his defensive work. The percentiles differ based on whether he was deployed as a forward or winger/attacking mid, but he scores highly in actual defensive actions like interceptions and blocks. FBref doesn’t provide statistics for pressing, but from what we have I can see he is willing to get stuck in and is an aggressive player. His attributes in FM back this up, scoring highly for aggression and work rate. He’s also got serious pace to burn.
The role I’m looking at him playing is as one of our primary goal threats, likely playing as an inverted player on the right. He will more often than not be deployed as an inside forward so he can break through opposition lines with his pace before having the ball played to him. In the defensive phase, I’ll be looking for him to press high and hard, making the most of his work rate and aggression.
Player Function: Primary Goalscorer - A fairly self-explanatory name, a player we expect to score the majority of our goals. They are also an important component of our high-press, and expected to pressure the opposition back line to win back the ball.
André Silva
Born: August 3, 1997
Nationality: Brazilian
Position: FW
Wage: €216,000 p/a
The second of several super Silva's in the squad and second-highest scorer in the Liga Portugal with 10 goals is Brazilian forward Andre Silva. In real life, he moved back to Brazil in February, joining São Paulo for a deal reportedly valued at 3.5 million euros.
Looking at his stats, he quite significantly overperformed on his xG. That could mean he’s a good finisher, and his relatively low shots per 90 seems to compound this.
However, I think something else may be at play here. Looking at his possession based stats, he didn’t take many touches in the opposition box compared to other forwards, and quite a bit less than Jota Silva. He has a good pass completion, and is in the 80th percentile for progressive passes. To me, this suggests that Silva looks to find players rushing into the area rather than always going for goal himself. When he does take a shot, it is when a good opportunity arises. I would have to watch some games to confirm, but I believe he may be a striker that sits around the edge of the box. His low aerial win rate also doesn’t scream box-crashing forward to me.
Coupled with his defensive statistics, one role is sticking out to me: the pressing forward. He will likely act as the starting point of our press, and in possession will either look to find a player running into the box or go for goal himself.
Player Function: Auxiliary goalscorer - By no means less important than the primary goalscorer, the secondary goalscorer is there to keep our options on the ball open, and is a player expected to put up a reasonable goal and assist tally. Like the primary goalscorer, consistent pressure on the opposition is expected.
João Mendes
Born: October 21, 1994
Nationality: Portuguese
Position: MF
Wage: €268,000 p/a
Primarily a central attacking midfielder, though capable of playing a deeper central role and on either wing, João Mendes was Vitoria’s third highest scorer this season behind Jota Silva and Andre Silva with 7 goals.
The standout stats for me are his Non-Penalty xG, shot creating actions, progressive carries and shots total. This is pretty much what you want from a CAM - a player that is happy both scoring and creating, confident in both carrying, keeping and moving the ball.
Another standout is his successful take-ons per 90, and our FM24 attributes tell us he is a confident dribbler with a penchant for flair. I’ll be looking to progress our play through him to let him use his flair and intelligence to make the right decision to either play in a teammate or go for goal himself. I also want him on the ball a lot, where his ball carrying ability can be utilised to maximum effect. One role really sticks out for me here - the Trequartista.
Player Function: Creator - A player that creates goalscoring chances for themselves or others through footwork, pressing, or accurate passing. Players who relish taking on opponents and engaging in technical trickery are preferred.
Tiago Silva
Born: June 2, 1993
Nationality: Portuguese
Position: MF (CM-AM)
Wage: €286,000 p/a
Tied with Jota Silva for assists, Tiago Silva is a very creative player. Testament to this is the fact he reached the 91st percentile for expected assisted goals, and 97th for shot-creating actions. A progressive passer in the 93rd percentile, he is constantly looking to get on the ball and distribute to the players ahead of him. This is perhaps why his pass completion % is so low, as he could be attempting high risk (and evidently high reward) passes.
His defensive statistics are not as exciting, though he did record a 64% tackle success rate, which isn't bad for an attacking midfielder. I'm confident he will be a competent presser, with his FM attributes telling me he excels in terms of work rate and aggression:
I'll most likely play Tiago Silva in an attack-minded central midfield roll, where I’ll be looking for him to break up opposition play and use his excellent creativity to fashion out chances for our players further up the pitch.
Player Function: Orchestrator - The heartbeat of the team, a creative, attack-minded player through whom we will look for most of our play to go through. They are also expected to act as a metronome, dictating the pace and tempo of play.
André André
Born: August 26, 1989
Nationality: Portuguese
Position: MF (CM-WM)
Wage: €317,000 p/a
André André has spent 10 seasons at VTSC over two seperate stints, and though the years are beginning to catch up with him, the former international has an important role to play in the squad. He profiles similarly to Tiago Silva, with a great eye for a pass and a healthy dose of aggression. comfortable taking on his man or laying the ball off to a teammate, an 87.2% pass completion rate is solid if unspectacular, and being in the 88th percentile for progressive carries shows he isn't afraid to move the ball himself.
The only things that worry me are his relative lack of stamina, likely due to his age, and his injury susceptibility. I’ll need to pick a player who will be able to slot into the same role whenever needed, with my current candidate being VTSC youth graduate Tomás Händel.
Player Function: Quarterback - Acting in a pivot with the orchestrator, the quarterback's main role is to win the ball for the team when we don't have it, and make sure we keep hold of it when we do. They must be happy to progress the ball either on their own through progressive carries or through accurate forward passing.
Manu Silva
Born: June 12, 2001
Nationality: Portuguese
Position: MF
Wage: €93,500 p/a
Equally happy playing at centre-back and defensive midfield, Manu Silva is a busy defender with brilliant timing in the challenge. Being in the 81st percentile for aerials won compared to centre-backs is impressive, and more than enough for someone playing ahead of our back two.
In terms of his function, this is the part of the squad where I hit a bit of a hitch. In possession, I'd like to form a 3-2-5 shape, ideally with Manu Silva dropping back to form the back 3 as he isn't the best passer. However, I also need a player who will occupy the space left in central midfield by the Orchestrator Tiago Silva. For now, Manu Silva will fulfill this role, but I consider his best function to be as 'The Third Man', a function which for the time being will be occupied by Mikel Villanueva.
Player Function: The Second Man - As the team transitions into its attacking shape, we will need someone to fill the hole left by one of our midfielders surging forward. Step in The Second Man, a player who must be comfortable in possession, recycling the ball and stopping counter-attacks dead in their tracks.
Mikel Villanueva
Born: April 14, 1993
Nationality: Venezuelan
Position: DF (CB, Left)
Wage: €234,000 p/a
An active defender, Mikel Villanueva is an aerial stalwart, and ranks in the 84th percentile for Interceptions and 86th for Blocks. He doesn't tackle much, but that isn't necessarily a bad thing - just ask Paolo Maldini. An experienced international, I'll be expecting Villanueva to marshal our defensive efforts. He's not afraid of carrying or moving the ball forward either, though being in the 90th percentile for progressive carries may be skewed by being in comparison with centre backs.
That's the position he's most comfortable in, and probably where I'll play him long-term. However, with Ricardo Mangas injured for several months, he is our best choice at left back, and that's where he'll have to fit in for the time being. As mentioned, I would prefer Manu Silva to slot into our back line and make a back three, but this role will be fulfilled by Mikel Villanueva as an inverted full back for now.
Player Function: The Third Man - Not a reference to the 1949 Noir classic, The Third Man is a player who will drop into our back line to form a 3-2-5 attacking shape. They must be a competent centre-back, happy to get stuck in and strong in the air.
Tomás Ribeiro
Born: April 30, 1999
Nationality: Portuguese
Position: DF (CB, Left)
Wage: €195,000 p/a
Not much leaps out about Tomás Ribeiro's real life statistics, bar the fact that he doesn't look to be great aerially. He is, however, our best left-footed centre back option after Mikel Villanueva. My in-game coach report tells me he is a committed, consistent performer who anticipate situations well. That's good enough for me, and at 24 he still has plenty of time to develop.
I'll be looking for him to do all the things a centre back should be good at, predominantly winning the ball, but they must also fit into our tactical system. That means they must be good on the ball, able to keep their composure and not give the ball away cheaply. I'm not sure how well Ribeiro will fit that role, but only time will tell.
Player Function: Left Centre Back - Good in the air, good in the challenge, aggressive, tenacious, and preferably with a bit of pace to boot, the centre back role is simple but vital. The left centre back function also requires a player who can use their left foot effectively.
Jorge Fernandes
Born: April 2, 1997
Nationality: Portuguese
Position: DF (CB, Right)
Wage: €143,000 p/a
Ribeiro's centre back partner will be Jorge Fernandes, who alongside Villanueva I will be expecting to shoulder most of the defensive responsibility. In the 99th percentile for aerials won and 86th for tackles, Fernandes jumps like a salmon and kicks like a mule. He's also in the 80th percentile for both progressive passes and carries, so I'm happy to play out of the back through him - though his poor pass completion % means I'll be restricting him to keeping it simple.
Player Function: Right Centre Back- Good in the air, good in the challenge, aggressive, tenacious, and preferably with a bit of pace to boot, the centre back role is simple but vital. The Right Centre Back function also requires a player who can use their right foot effectively.
Bruno Gaspar
Born: April 21, 1993
Nationality: Angolan
Position: DF-MF (FB, Right)
Wage: €205,000 p/a
With so many off our players acting centrally or in inverted roles, we need someone who can stretch the play. We can find that in Bruno Gaspar, who as a right sided wing back will act as the fifth player of our attacking quintet. His assist and shot creating numbers are acceptable, and 8.35 progressive passes per 90 shows he is a player who is always looking forward. While he will have less defensive responsibility, he will still be expected to protect his flank and get back when required. My coaches tell me his strongest attribute is his work rate, so I'm confident he will do just that.
Player Function: Stretcher - A pacey wide player, the stretcher is, unsurprisingly, expected to stretch our play across the pitch. Dragging defenders out of position, he will open up space for his teammates, and is expected to supply them with pinpoint passes. In the defensive phase, it is imperative he possesses the work rate to get back into position in the back line.
Bruno Varela
Born: November 4, 1994
Nationality: Cape Verdean
Position: GK
Wage: €390,000 p/a
There wasn't much decision making required for our man between the sticks, as Bruno Varela is a team leader, club captain, and contractually first choice. He looks to be an adequate stopper, and 1.28 defensive actions outside his penalty area is passable - though I will be expecting more. His propensity to pass it long is something I'd like to avoid in order to retain possession, and I'm hoping that's just a tactical decision by my predecessor.
Player Function: Sweeper Keeper - Adept at standard goalkeeping duties, the sweeper keeper will also be expected to act as an extra player in build-up play, as well as stepping out of their area when we required to sweep up loose balls and stop counter-attacks.
Team Tactics
With our player functions finalised, it's time to pull it all together and look at how the team is going to set up.
Although our predecessor played predominantly in a 3-4-3 formation, I think this team is well suited to a 4-3-3. We have plenty of players who are excellent passers, and so we will look to dominate games through possession. We also have an aggressive, hard-working squad, exactly how I like it. Because of this, we will use a Gegenpress approach, looking to win the ball back high up the pitch, smothering the opposition through aggressive pressure. A high defensive line and high line of engagement, as well as a 'more often' trigger press instruction are our out of possession instructions, with counter-press, counter and distribute to centre-backs selected in transition.
In build-up, we will form a 3-2-5 shape, with plenty of passing triangles and recycling options to retain the ball. I've kept our team instructions as simple as possible, focussing only on the most important elements that I want every player to adhere to. To do this, I have instructed the team to play out of defence and focus play through the middle. I've also asked them to work the ball into the box, as well as asking for short passing and a higher tempo. Our shapes, movement and progression will be determined mostly by our player roles and individual instructions.
Our mentality will be positive, and I think it will remain like this even in difficult games. That's because the way we're set up falls apart a bit if we play more cautiously. We want to always be on the front foot, and anything below a positive mentality will see us more happy to concede possession - something I want to avoid. If required, I will set individual roles to be more defensive. If we need to see out a close game, I'll lower the tempo slightly to allow us to keep hold of the ball. equally, if we're looking for a goal, I will set the team to an attacking mentality.
With a small squad, even a small injury crisis could make my life difficult. I'm hoping that switching my approach to focus on functions rather than positions will help this, as many of them are interchangeable. As long as the overall approach and in/out of possession shapes remain the same, we can move players around as required. Additionally, none of this is set in stone. I do expect our tactical approach to remain largely the same, but tweaks to roles and instructions may be required to address any issues that crop up. I have the whole of preseason to tinker, and I'll cover how the team performs in the next instalment.
That wraps up what has been a bumper post, but I think this is how I'd like the blog to be going forwards. Less volume, more quality and in-depth analysis. It also reflects how the way I'm playing is changing, focussing less on charging through seasons and taking a more careful, considered approach.
This save has gripped me so far, and I'm probably going to be continuing it up until FM25 is released. If we have the option again, I might even take it into the new game. I'd like to give thanks to MustermannFM for creating the skin and inspiring me to get on board with using data, and for his personal advice. His videos have been an invaluable resource, and again I cannot recommend his Youtube channel enough.
The next post will come following the winter transfer window, our first opportunity to put the data-led approach to the test in terms of signing players. I'll also recap how our tactics have been getting on and any player performances worthy of not, for good or bad. Thanks for reading.
FM Patrick
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